Policy Analysis Market
The Policy Analysis Market (PAM) was a prediction market proposed by DARPA to have opened October 1, 2003. It would have permitted bets on political events with a special focus on the Middle East. It was cancelled due to a public outcry and the potential for both Pentagon insiders and outsiders to benefit from planning mayhem.
The PAM was an integral part of Total Information Awareness.
Paul Dundes Wolfowitz, according to Reuters, told senators that while the Pentagon was supposed to be imaginative, "it sounds like maybe they got too imaginative".
Sen. John W. Warner (R-VA) was quoted as saying it was a plan that "might not be a good idea at this time." After meeting with Warner, Anthony Tether of DARPA declared the terror futures market "finished."
Sen. Pat Roberts of Kansas (R-KS) said "I think they are way off base and somebody should bear that responsibility."
Since legal clearance for the PAM was achieved, and every American is in theory identical under the law, it appears the legal way is clear for private sector or competing nonprofit prediction markets even in very contentious events. The American Actions Market (AAM) was announced shortly after the cancellation and also plans to open October 1.
- 2003/07/29 news item
- George Edmonson, Congress zeros in on Poindexter over terror futures flap, Cox News Service, July 31, 2003.