War in Iraq is fueling global terrorism
The "global jihadist movement—which includes al-Qa’ida, affiliated and independent terrorist groups, and emerging networks and cells—is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts," according to "Key Judgments" contained in the declassifed portion of the April 2006 National Intelligence Estimate—"Declassified Key Judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate 'Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States'"—posted September 26, 2006, on the website of Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte.
- 1 "Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement"
- 2 Other "assessments"
- 3 Current U.S. Counter-terrorism Strategies
- 4 External links
- 5 Related SourceWatch Resources
"Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement"
According to the April 2006 NIE, there are four "underlying factors" which are "fueling the spread of the jihadist movement":
- "Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness;
- "the Iraq 'jihad';
- "the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and
- "pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims—all of which jihadists exploit."
The April 2006 NIE also reports a number of other "assessments":
- "a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion."
- "If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide."
- "the global jihadist movement is decentralized, lacks a coherent global strategy, and is becoming more diffuse. New jihadist networks and cells, with anti-American agendas, are increasingly likely to emerge. The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups."
- "the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere."
- "The Iraq conflict has become the 'cause celebre' for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight."
- "Al-Qa’ida, now merged with Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi’s network, is exploiting the situation in Iraq to attract new recruits and donors and to maintain its leadership role."
- "Other affiliated Sunni extremist organizations, such as Jemaah Islamiya, Ansar al-Sunnah, and several North African groups, unless countered, are likely to expand their reach and become more capable of multiple and/or mass-casualty attacks outside their traditional areas of operation."
- "most jihadist groups—both well-known and newly formed—will use improvised explosive devices and suicide attacks focused primarily on soft targets to implement their asymmetric warfare strategy, and that they will attempt to conduct sustained terrorist attacks in urban environments. Fighters with experience in Iraq are a potential source of leadership for jihadists pursuing these tactics."
- "While Iran, and to a lesser extent Syria, remain the most active state sponsors of terrorism, many other states will be unable to prevent territory or resources from being exploited by terrorists."
- "Anti-US and anti-globalization sentiment is on the rise and fueling other radical ideologies. This could prompt some leftist, nationalist, or separatist groups to adopt terrorist methods to attack US interests."
- "The radicalization process is occurring more quickly, more widely, and more anonymously in the Internet age, raising the likelihood of surprise attacks by unknown groups whose members and supporters may be difficult to pinpoint."
Current U.S. Counter-terrorism Strategies
- National Defense Strategy
- National Military Strategic Plan for the War on Terrorism
- National Office for Combatting Terrorism
- National Security Presidential Directive
- National Security Strategy
- National Strategy for Victory in Iraq
- National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction
From the Bush administration
- News Release: "President Bush Releases National Strategy for Combating Terrorism," Office of the White House Press Secretary, February 14, 2003.
- President George W. Bush, News Release: "The Rest of the Story: The NIE Reflects Previous Statements About the War on Terror," White House, September 26, 2006.
Video News Links
- "Bush: Bloodshed in Iraq Will 'Look Like a Comma' to History," YouTube, September 24, 2006. 1:54 Minutes/Bush on CNN with Wolf Blitzer.
- "George W Bush Is Fueling Terrorism Worldwide," YouTube, September 24, 2006. 4:32 Minutes/MSNBC.
- "Iraq: Just a comma," YouTube, September 25, 2006. 1:43 Minutes/Comments from CNN's The Situation Room with Jack Cafferty.
- "Leaked Intel Report Shows Iraq War Making US Less Safe," YouTube, September 25, 2006. 3:58 Minutes/MSNBC Countdown with Keith Olbermann.
- "Olbermann revokes Bush 'free pass'—Defends Clinton," YouTube, September 26, 2006. 10:38 Minutes/MSNBC Countdown with Keith Olbermann.
- "Bush and Couric Discuss War on Terror and Iraq," YouTube, September 26, 2006. 2:37 Minutes/Bush with Katie Couric. (Note: film has some problems and obviously has been edited.)
- "Lieberman: NIE Report Changes Nothing," YouTube, September 26, 2006. 2:01 Minutes/NewsChannel8, WTNH.com/Hartford, CT.
Articles & Commentary
- Ashraf Fahim, "Iraq: Trying to spin the unspinnable," Asia Times, September 20, 2006.
- Richard A. Serrano, "White House Rebuts Bleak Report on Iraq. Bush officials disagree with a U.S. intelligence analysis that the war has spread terrorism, saying Islamic extremism goes back generations," Los Angeles Times, September 24, 2006.
- "Negroponte Denies Terror Claims," BBC, September 25, 2006.
- "Some Say Bush Made Terror Worse," ABC News, September 25, 2006.
- "Dems: Leaked Iraq report shows need for new direction," CNN, September 25, 2006.
- David Corn, "Release the NIE on Iraq and Terrorism!" Capital Games/The Nation, September 25, 2006.
- Bill Nichols and David Jackson, "Released part of intel study notes new threats," Associated Press (USA TODAY), September 26, 2006.
- Katherine Shrader, "Iraq Is 'Cause Celebre' for Extremists," Associated Press (Forbes), April 26, 2006.
- Katherine Shrader, "Negroponte says threat not greater," Associated Press (Boston Globe), September 26, 2006.
- "Musharraf: Iraq war makes world more dangerous," CNN, September 26, 2006.
- "NIE: Al Qaeda 'damaged,' becoming more scattered," CNN, September 26, 2006. Scroll down to "Response Mixed."
- Greg Mitchell, "Bush's 'Comma': Courtesy of Gracie Allen?" Editor & Publisher, September 26, 2006: "The mystery of what President Bush meant when he likened the Iraq war to 'just a comma' may be solved. It seems to have been inspired by current Christian teaching--and a quote from batty comedienne Gracie Allen."
- Rob Kall, "Bush Announces De-Classification of April NIE Document; Do you Trust Him To Release A Full Disclosure, Truthful Document?" OpEdNews, September 26, 2006.
- Dan Robinson, "Verbal Battles Continue Over US Intelligence Document," Voice of America News, September 26, 2006.
- Ron Elving, "U.S. Iraq Policy: Going Down on One NIE?" NPR's Watching Washington, September 26, 2006.
- Joe Subbay, "Democratic message: the war in Iraq is making it harder for America to fight and win the war on terror," AMERICAblog, September 26, 2006.
- Andy Ostroy, "16 Spy Agencies Now Validate Ned Lamont's Campaign Message. New NIE Makes it Clear Why He, Not Lieberman, is Right About Iraq," The Ostroy Report, September 26, 2006.
- David Swanson, "Rep. Woolsey and 15 Other Congress Members Hold Hearing on Iraq," After Downing Street, September 26, 2006.
- Michael Isikoff and Mark Hosenball, "Selective Intelligence. The National Intelligence Estimate doesn’t say what Bush says it does. How will he handle upcoming secret reports on Iran and Iraq?" Newsweek, September 27, 2006.
- AJ, "Democrats lead on Iraq," AMERICAblog, September 27, 2006.
- Brendan Murray and Jeff Bliss, "Iraq Is Fueling Muslim Radicalism Globally, U.S. Report Says," Bloomberg, September 27, 2006.
- "Declassified report: Smaller terror cells likely to multiply," CNN, September 27, 2006.
- Opinion: "No longer a secret: Iraq war breeds terror threat," USA TODAY, September 27, 2006.
- "Iraq war fuels terror - US report," BBC, September 27, 2006.
- "Democrats Seek Full Terror Report," BBC, September 27, 2006.
- Paul Reynolds, "Terror report clouds Bush narrative," BBC, September 27, 2006.
- Mark Silva, "Bush denies war incites terrorists. Says militants would still target U.S.," Chicago Tribune, September 27, 2006.
- Richard Sisk, "Dubya labels his own intelligence info 'naive'," New York Daily News, September 27, 2006.
- Bryan Bender, "Report sees war fueling jihadists. Says their success in Iraq could spur more terrorists," Boston Globe, September 27, 2006.
- Derrick Z. Jackson, Editorial: "Multipying the Enemy," Boston Globe, September 27, 2006.
- Robert Scheer, "A war against intelligence," San Francisco Chronicle, September 27, 2006.
- Joe Gandelman, "Bush's Release Of Terror Study Could Cost Him (UPDATED)," The Moderate Voice, September 27, 2006.
- Jim Lobe, "The diminished dividends of war," Asia Times, September 27, 2006.
- Ehsan Ahrari, "Dumbed-down intelligence," Asia Times, September 29, 2006.
- Jim Lobe, "An alternative way forward for the US," Asia Times, September 29, 2006.
- Ron Moreau, Sami Yousafzai and Michael Hirsh, "The Rise of Jihadistan. Five years after the Afghan invasion, the Taliban are fighting back hard, carving out a sanctuary where they—and Al Qaeda's leaders—can operate freely," NewsWeek, October 2, 2006 (issue).
Related SourceWatch Resources
- 2003 invasion of Iraq
- adapting to win
- 'A war sold on deception'
- Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002
- Bush administration:
- civil war in Iraq
- Congressional actions on the Iraq War
- embolden the terrorists
- Exit Strategy from Iraq
- failure in Iraq
- Iraq as an imminent threat
- Is the Iraq mission a failure?
- Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive
- Operation Iraqi Freedom: Year Four
- New Iraq / Post-war Iraq
- Rumsfeld and the Generals
- stay the course
- taking the fight to the terrorists
- The alleged linkage of Saddam Hussein with Osama bin Laden, al Qaeda and weapons of mass destruction
- The Long War
- "The Path to 9/11" (2006 Docudrama)
- violence in the Middle East
- war in Iran